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COUNTRY PROFILE · EST

Estonia 🇪🇪

Emerging disruption pressure across 45 representative jobs covering 91.1% of the country's modelled GDP. The Rebellion Risk profile adds a structural-pressure view of how disruption may interact with economic strain, governance, civic space, support systems, and history. Government Preparedness then measures observable capacity to prevent, absorb, and respond to AI-related shocks. These are evidence indexes, not forecasts.

JOB DOOM24.4out of 100GDP-weighted disruption profile, not an unemployment forecast
Job Doom
24.4
GDP coverage
91.1%
Confidence
71/100
Economic data
2025
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GDP-WEIGHTED REPRESENTATIVE WORK

Jobs shaping Estonia's score

GDP shares are transparent estimates derived from World Bank sector value added and a fixed sector-to-occupation allocation. They describe economic importance, not the percentage of workers in each job.

45 of 45 jobs

  1. Retail salespersons

    Trade, transport and distribution
    Estimated GDP share
    4.08%
    Job Doom
    31.8
    Confidence
    68/100
    Job evidence →

  2. Customer service representatives

    Business, finance and digital services
    Estimated GDP share
    3.26%
    Job Doom
    60.3
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →

  3. Heavy truck and lorry drivers

    Trade, transport and distribution
    Estimated GDP share
    3.02%
    Job Doom
    8.6
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →
  4. Estimated GDP share
    2.97%
    Job Doom
    9.4
    Confidence
    65/100
    Job evidence →

  5. Registered nurses

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    2.96%
    Job Doom
    12.2
    Confidence
    80/100
    Job evidence →

  6. Primary school teachers

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    2.75%
    Job Doom
    15.0
    Confidence
    76/100
    Job evidence →

  7. General and operations managers

    Business, finance and digital services
    Estimated GDP share
    2.72%
    Job Doom
    21.0
    Confidence
    72/100
    Job evidence →

  8. Secondary school teachers

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    2.54%
    Job Doom
    27.0
    Confidence
    75/100
    Job evidence →
  9. Estimated GDP share
    2.47%
    Job Doom
    6.4
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →
  10. Estimated GDP share
    2.47%
    Job Doom
    6.1
    Confidence
    71/100
    Job evidence →

  11. Secretaries and administrative assistants

    Business, finance and digital services
    Estimated GDP share
    2.45%
    Job Doom
    46.0
    Confidence
    72/100
    Job evidence →

  12. Hotel and office cleaners

    Hospitality and personal services
    Estimated GDP share
    2.29%
    Job Doom
    4.2
    Confidence
    67/100
    Job evidence →

  13. Cashiers and ticket clerks

    Trade, transport and distribution
    Estimated GDP share
    2.26%
    Job Doom
    18.6
    Confidence
    71/100
    Job evidence →

  14. Accountants and auditors

    Business, finance and digital services
    Estimated GDP share
    2.17%
    Job Doom
    37.8
    Confidence
    73/100
    Job evidence →

  15. Software developers

    Business, finance and digital services
    Estimated GDP share
    2.17%
    Job Doom
    34.8
    Confidence
    66/100
    Job evidence →

  16. Government administration officers

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    2.11%
    Job Doom
    24.2
    Confidence
    74/100
    Job evidence →

  17. Medical practitioners

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    2.11%
    Job Doom
    11.7
    Confidence
    69/100
    Job evidence →

  18. Nursing assistants

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    2.11%
    Job Doom
    7.6
    Confidence
    64/100
    Job evidence →

  19. Cooks

    Hospitality and personal services
    Estimated GDP share
    2.05%
    Job Doom
    7.1
    Confidence
    69/100
    Job evidence →

  20. Hotel receptionists

    Hospitality and personal services
    Estimated GDP share
    2.05%
    Job Doom
    27.8
    Confidence
    71/100
    Job evidence →

  21. Carpenters and joiners

    Construction and utilities
    Estimated GDP share
    2.02%
    Job Doom
    4.5
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →

  22. Data entry clerks

    Business, finance and digital services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.90%
    Job Doom
    62.7
    Confidence
    65/100
    Job evidence →

  23. Financial and investment analysts

    Business, finance and digital services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.90%
    Job Doom
    54.2
    Confidence
    71/100
    Job evidence →

  24. Market research and marketing professionals

    Business, finance and digital services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.90%
    Job Doom
    56.4
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →

  25. Waiters

    Hospitality and personal services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.81%
    Job Doom
    9.8
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →

  26. Medical records specialists

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.69%
    Job Doom
    56.1
    Confidence
    64/100
    Job evidence →

  27. Police officers

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.69%
    Job Doom
    11.9
    Confidence
    69/100
    Job evidence →

  28. Social and human service assistants

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.69%
    Job Doom
    11.5
    Confidence
    72/100
    Job evidence →

  29. Building electricians

    Construction and utilities
    Estimated GDP share
    1.68%
    Job Doom
    6.7
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →

  30. Infrastructure maintenance workers

    Construction and utilities
    Estimated GDP share
    1.68%
    Job Doom
    6.1
    Confidence
    71/100
    Job evidence →

  31. Compliance and regulatory officers

    Business, finance and digital services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.63%
    Job Doom
    19.5
    Confidence
    74/100
    Job evidence →

  32. Computer programmers

    Business, finance and digital services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.63%
    Job Doom
    62.5
    Confidence
    63/100
    Job evidence →

  33. Lawyers

    Business, finance and digital services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.63%
    Job Doom
    22.2
    Confidence
    72/100
    Job evidence →
  34. Estimated GDP share
    1.61%
    Job Doom
    14.9
    Confidence
    77/100
    Job evidence →
  35. Estimated GDP share
    1.61%
    Job Doom
    14.0
    Confidence
    82/100
    Job evidence →

  36. Client information workers

    Trade, transport and distribution
    Estimated GDP share
    1.51%
    Job Doom
    54.5
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →

  37. Real estate agents

    Trade, transport and distribution
    Estimated GDP share
    1.51%
    Job Doom
    28.4
    Confidence
    71/100
    Job evidence →

  38. Security guards

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.48%
    Job Doom
    7.1
    Confidence
    66/100
    Job evidence →

  39. Child care workers

    Hospitality and personal services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.45%
    Job Doom
    7.4
    Confidence
    75/100
    Job evidence →

  40. Graphic and multimedia designers

    Business, finance and digital services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.36%
    Job Doom
    38.2
    Confidence
    71/100
    Job evidence →

  41. Logistics and transport clerks

    Trade, transport and distribution
    Estimated GDP share
    1.36%
    Job Doom
    26.3
    Confidence
    76/100
    Job evidence →

  42. Supply and distribution managers

    Trade, transport and distribution
    Estimated GDP share
    1.36%
    Job Doom
    18.9
    Confidence
    82/100
    Job evidence →

  43. Technical writers

    Business, finance and digital services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.36%
    Job Doom
    46.1
    Confidence
    67/100
    Job evidence →

  44. Travel consultants

    Hospitality and personal services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.33%
    Job Doom
    42.5
    Confidence
    67/100
    Job evidence →

  45. Freight truck drivers

    Manufacturing
    Estimated GDP share
    1.24%
    Job Doom
    8.6
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →
EVIDENCE OVER TIME

Country score progression

Historical country points reuse the same current GDP weights so changes represent new occupation evidence rather than changes in economic composition.

0 25 50 75 100 27.9 2025-05 24.4 2026-03 24.4 2026-06
  1. 27.9
  2. 24.4
  3. 24.4
ECONOMIC BASIS

Sector profile and provenance

Reported sector shares. The latest available value is used for each top-level sector. Manufacturing is shown inside industry and is not added to the 100% total a second time.

Agriculture
1.9%
Industry
22.6%
Manufacturing within GDP
12.4%
Services
75.5%
CURRENT REBELLION RISK SNAPSHOT

Structural pressure in Estonia

Limited structural pressure at 17.5 out of 100. This is a comparative early-warning index, not a probability or prediction that an uprising will occur.

REBELLION RISK17.5out of 100Limited structural pressure, confidence 83/100
Small protest pressure
15.9
Limited structural pressure
Medium protest pressure
15.1
Limited structural pressure
Large protest pressure
14.6
Limited structural pressure
AI displacement pressure24.4
Economic and labour strain26.4
Governance and lawful-response fragility21.2
Social shock-absorption deficit18.0
Civic and legal restriction pressure4.0
Economic protest and mobilization history0.0

Current input snapshot

Unemployment
8.3% (2025)
Youth unemployment
19.7% (2025)
Inflation
4.8% (2025)
Political stability
77.8/100
Government effectiveness
76.6/100
Rule of law
82.5/100
Voice and accountability
81.6/100
Civic space
Open (96/100)
Social protection
85.9% (ILO income-group estimate)

Recorded protest history

Economic protests in Carnegie tracker
0
Economic protests since 2023
0
Largest recorded size band
Not recorded
UCDP violent political protest events
0
Latest UCDP year
Not recorded

No economically motivated protest is recorded for this country in the selective Carnegie tracker. This is not evidence that none occurred.

Confidence is reduced for modelled inputs. Social protection uses the ILO's 2023 high income group estimate because a complete country-level public download was unavailable. Other fallback fields: none.

REPORTS OVER TIME

Rebellion Risk timeline

This first publication establishes the initial snapshot. Complete future reports append comparable points instead of silently replacing earlier assessments.

0 25 50 75 100 17.5 2026-08
  1. 17.5Initial published snapshot

Compare all countries and impact layers → Read the complete method →

CURRENT GOVERNMENT PREPAREDNESS SNAPSHOT

Public capacity in Estonia

Strong observed preparedness at 83.5 out of 100. This comparison measures documented capacity, not a guarantee, endorsement, or prediction of future government performance.

GOVERNMENT PREPAREDNESS83.5out of 100Strong observed preparedness, confidence 86/100
Prevent
80.2
Prevent avoidable AI harm
Absorb
90.5
Absorb economic and cyber shocks
Respond
81.4
Respond lawfully and effectively
Responsible AI governance safeguards69.9
Digital state capacity97.3
Cyber resilience95.0
Social shock protection85.9
Institutional execution79.6
Crisis-response capacity85.0

Current input snapshot

Responsible AI safeguards
69.9/100 (2026)
Digital state capacity
97.3/100 (2024)
Cyber resilience
95.0/100 (2024)
Social shock protection
85.9/100 (2023)
Institutional execution
79.6/100 (2024)
Crisis-response capacity
85.0/100 (2026)

Model interpretation

Weakest stage
Prevent avoidable AI harm
Overall method
Weighted geometric mean
Observed fallbacks
0
Confidence
86/100

Prevention carries 40% of the final score. Absorption and response each carry 30%. The geometric mean limits compensation when one stage is materially weaker.

Confidence is reduced for modelled inputs. Social protection uses the ILO's 2023 high income estimate. Other fallbacks: none.

REPORTS OVER TIME

Government Preparedness timeline

This first publication establishes the initial snapshot. Complete future reports append comparable points and retain the previous validated generation.

0 25 50 75 100 83.5 2026-08
  1. 83.5Initial published snapshot

Compare all countries and capacity layers → Read the complete method →

DOOMBENCH ASSOCIATIONS

People and companies

Associations reuse reviewed People country codes and Company headquarters data. They support navigation only and never change a country or job score.

People (0)

No published people profiles are currently associated with Estonia.

Companies (0)

No published company profiles are currently associated with Estonia.

SHARE THE FINDINGS

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DoomBench social sharing card for Estonia.

  1. Estonia has a DoomBench Job Doom score of 24.4 out of 100 across 45 representative jobs covering 91.1% of the country's modelled GDP.

  2. Estonia has a DoomBench Rebellion Risk score of 17.5 out of 100, with economic and labour strain currently the strongest modelled structural-pressure factor.

  3. Estonia has a DoomBench Government Preparedness score of 83.5 out of 100, with prevent avoidable ai harm identified as its weakest current capacity stage.

    https://www.doombench.com/countries/estonia