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COUNTRY PROFILE · GTM

Guatemala 🇬🇹

Emerging disruption pressure across 46 representative jobs covering 90.9% of the country's modelled GDP. The Rebellion Risk profile adds a structural-pressure view of how disruption may interact with economic strain, governance, civic space, support systems, and history. Government Preparedness then measures observable capacity to prevent, absorb, and respond to AI-related shocks. These are evidence indexes, not forecasts.

JOB DOOM20.5out of 100GDP-weighted disruption profile, not an unemployment forecast
Job Doom
20.5
GDP coverage
90.9%
Confidence
71/100
Economic data
2025
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GDP-WEIGHTED REPRESENTATIVE WORK

Jobs shaping Guatemala's score

GDP shares are transparent estimates derived from World Bank sector value added and a fixed sector-to-occupation allocation. They describe economic importance, not the percentage of workers in each job.

46 of 46 jobs

  1. Crop and nursery farmworkers

    Agriculture, forestry and fishing
    Estimated GDP share
    5.93%
    Job Doom
    4.4
    Confidence
    74/100
    Job evidence →

  2. Retail salespersons

    Trade, transport and distribution
    Estimated GDP share
    4.85%
    Job Doom
    31.8
    Confidence
    68/100
    Job evidence →

  3. Heavy truck and lorry drivers

    Trade, transport and distribution
    Estimated GDP share
    3.59%
    Job Doom
    8.6
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →
  4. Estimated GDP share
    3.39%
    Job Doom
    9.4
    Confidence
    65/100
    Job evidence →
  5. Estimated GDP share
    2.82%
    Job Doom
    6.4
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →
  6. Estimated GDP share
    2.82%
    Job Doom
    6.1
    Confidence
    71/100
    Job evidence →

  7. Cashiers and ticket clerks

    Trade, transport and distribution
    Estimated GDP share
    2.69%
    Job Doom
    18.6
    Confidence
    71/100
    Job evidence →

  8. Registered nurses

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    2.51%
    Job Doom
    12.2
    Confidence
    80/100
    Job evidence →

  9. Primary school teachers

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    2.33%
    Job Doom
    15.0
    Confidence
    76/100
    Job evidence →

  10. Hotel and office cleaners

    Hospitality and personal services
    Estimated GDP share
    2.27%
    Job Doom
    4.2
    Confidence
    67/100
    Job evidence →

  11. Customer service representatives

    Business, finance and digital services
    Estimated GDP share
    2.23%
    Job Doom
    60.3
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →

  12. Secondary school teachers

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    2.15%
    Job Doom
    27.0
    Confidence
    75/100
    Job evidence →

  13. Agricultural production managers

    Agriculture, forestry and fishing
    Estimated GDP share
    2.04%
    Job Doom
    9.4
    Confidence
    82/100
    Job evidence →

  14. Cooks

    Hospitality and personal services
    Estimated GDP share
    2.03%
    Job Doom
    7.1
    Confidence
    69/100
    Job evidence →

  15. Hotel receptionists

    Hospitality and personal services
    Estimated GDP share
    2.03%
    Job Doom
    27.8
    Confidence
    71/100
    Job evidence →

  16. General and operations managers

    Business, finance and digital services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.86%
    Job Doom
    21.0
    Confidence
    72/100
    Job evidence →
  17. Estimated GDP share
    1.84%
    Job Doom
    14.9
    Confidence
    77/100
    Job evidence →
  18. Estimated GDP share
    1.84%
    Job Doom
    14.0
    Confidence
    82/100
    Job evidence →

  19. Carpenters and joiners

    Construction and utilities
    Estimated GDP share
    1.81%
    Job Doom
    4.5
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →

  20. Client information workers

    Trade, transport and distribution
    Estimated GDP share
    1.79%
    Job Doom
    54.5
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →

  21. Government administration officers

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.79%
    Job Doom
    24.2
    Confidence
    74/100
    Job evidence →

  22. Medical practitioners

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.79%
    Job Doom
    11.7
    Confidence
    69/100
    Job evidence →

  23. Nursing assistants

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.79%
    Job Doom
    7.6
    Confidence
    64/100
    Job evidence →

  24. Real estate agents

    Trade, transport and distribution
    Estimated GDP share
    1.79%
    Job Doom
    28.4
    Confidence
    71/100
    Job evidence →

  25. Waiters

    Hospitality and personal services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.79%
    Job Doom
    9.8
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →

  26. Secretaries and administrative assistants

    Business, finance and digital services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.68%
    Job Doom
    46.0
    Confidence
    72/100
    Job evidence →

  27. Logistics and transport clerks

    Trade, transport and distribution
    Estimated GDP share
    1.62%
    Job Doom
    26.3
    Confidence
    76/100
    Job evidence →

  28. Supply and distribution managers

    Trade, transport and distribution
    Estimated GDP share
    1.62%
    Job Doom
    18.9
    Confidence
    82/100
    Job evidence →

  29. Building electricians

    Construction and utilities
    Estimated GDP share
    1.51%
    Job Doom
    6.7
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →

  30. Infrastructure maintenance workers

    Construction and utilities
    Estimated GDP share
    1.51%
    Job Doom
    6.1
    Confidence
    71/100
    Job evidence →

  31. Accountants and auditors

    Business, finance and digital services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.49%
    Job Doom
    37.8
    Confidence
    73/100
    Job evidence →

  32. Software developers

    Business, finance and digital services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.49%
    Job Doom
    34.8
    Confidence
    66/100
    Job evidence →

  33. Child care workers

    Hospitality and personal services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.44%
    Job Doom
    7.4
    Confidence
    75/100
    Job evidence →

  34. Medical records specialists

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.44%
    Job Doom
    56.1
    Confidence
    64/100
    Job evidence →

  35. Police officers

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.44%
    Job Doom
    11.9
    Confidence
    69/100
    Job evidence →

  36. Social and human service assistants

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.44%
    Job Doom
    11.5
    Confidence
    72/100
    Job evidence →

  37. Freight truck drivers

    Manufacturing
    Estimated GDP share
    1.41%
    Job Doom
    8.6
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →

  38. Travel consultants

    Hospitality and personal services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.32%
    Job Doom
    42.5
    Confidence
    67/100
    Job evidence →

  39. Data entry clerks

    Business, finance and digital services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.30%
    Job Doom
    62.7
    Confidence
    65/100
    Job evidence →

  40. Financial and investment analysts

    Business, finance and digital services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.30%
    Job Doom
    54.2
    Confidence
    71/100
    Job evidence →

  41. Market research and marketing professionals

    Business, finance and digital services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.30%
    Job Doom
    56.4
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →

  42. Security guards

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.26%
    Job Doom
    7.1
    Confidence
    66/100
    Job evidence →

  43. Fishing and aquaculture workers

    Agriculture, forestry and fishing
    Estimated GDP share
    1.23%
    Job Doom
    6.1
    Confidence
    80/100
    Job evidence →

  44. Compliance and regulatory officers

    Business, finance and digital services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.12%
    Job Doom
    19.5
    Confidence
    74/100
    Job evidence →

  45. Computer programmers

    Business, finance and digital services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.12%
    Job Doom
    62.5
    Confidence
    63/100
    Job evidence →

  46. Lawyers

    Business, finance and digital services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.12%
    Job Doom
    22.2
    Confidence
    72/100
    Job evidence →
EVIDENCE OVER TIME

Country score progression

Historical country points reuse the same current GDP weights so changes represent new occupation evidence rather than changes in economic composition.

0 25 50 75 100 23.2 2025-05 20.5 2026-03 20.5 2026-06
  1. 23.2
  2. 20.5
  3. 20.5
ECONOMIC BASIS

Sector profile and provenance

Reported sector shares. The latest available value is used for each top-level sector. Manufacturing is shown inside industry and is not added to the 100% total a second time.

Agriculture
10.2%
Industry
23.3%
Manufacturing within GDP
14.1%
Services
66.5%
CURRENT REBELLION RISK SNAPSHOT

Structural pressure in Guatemala

Emerging structural pressure at 25.1 out of 100. This is a comparative early-warning index, not a probability or prediction that an uprising will occur.

REBELLION RISK25.1out of 100Emerging structural pressure, confidence 83/100
Small protest pressure
14.1
Limited structural pressure
Medium protest pressure
17.9
Limited structural pressure
Large protest pressure
27.2
Emerging structural pressure
AI displacement pressure20.5
Economic and labour strain0.0
Governance and lawful-response fragility52.0
Social shock-absorption deficit30.5
Civic and legal restriction pressure60.0
Economic protest and mobilization history0.0

Current input snapshot

Unemployment
2.6% (2025)
Youth unemployment
4.8% (2025)
Inflation
1.5% (2025)
Political stability
62.3/100
Government effectiveness
33.7/100
Rule of law
40.4/100
Voice and accountability
48.6/100
Civic space
Repressed (40/100)
Social protection
71.2% (ILO income-group estimate)

Recorded protest history

Economic protests in Carnegie tracker
0
Economic protests since 2023
0
Largest recorded size band
Not recorded
UCDP violent political protest events
0
Latest UCDP year
Not recorded

No economically motivated protest is recorded for this country in the selective Carnegie tracker. This is not evidence that none occurred.

Confidence is reduced for modelled inputs. Social protection uses the ILO's 2023 upper middle income group estimate because a complete country-level public download was unavailable. Other fallback fields: none.

REPORTS OVER TIME

Rebellion Risk timeline

This first publication establishes the initial snapshot. Complete future reports append comparable points instead of silently replacing earlier assessments.

0 25 50 75 100 25.1 2026-08
  1. 25.1Initial published snapshot

Compare all countries and impact layers → Read the complete method →

CURRENT GOVERNMENT PREPAREDNESS SNAPSHOT

Public capacity in Guatemala

Developing observed preparedness at 47.2 out of 100. This comparison measures documented capacity, not a guarantee, endorsement, or prediction of future government performance.

GOVERNMENT PREPAREDNESS47.2out of 100Developing observed preparedness, confidence 66/100
Prevent
42.8
Prevent avoidable AI harm
Absorb
55.6
Absorb economic and cyber shocks
Respond
45.7
Respond lawfully and effectively
Responsible AI governance safeguards34.0
Digital state capacity57.4
Cyber resilience40.0
Social shock protection71.2
Institutional execution43.0
Crisis-response capacity51.0

Current input snapshot

Responsible AI safeguards
34.0/100 (2026)
Digital state capacity
57.4/100 (2024)
Cyber resilience
40.0/100 (2024)
Social shock protection
71.2/100 (2023)
Institutional execution
43.0/100 (2024)
Crisis-response capacity
51.0/100 (2026)

Model interpretation

Weakest stage
Prevent avoidable AI harm
Overall method
Weighted geometric mean
Observed fallbacks
1
Confidence
66/100

Prevention carries 40% of the final score. Absorption and response each carry 30%. The geometric mean limits compensation when one stage is materially weaker.

Confidence is reduced for modelled inputs. Social protection uses the ILO's 2023 upper middle income estimate. Other fallbacks: Responsible AI safeguards.

REPORTS OVER TIME

Government Preparedness timeline

This first publication establishes the initial snapshot. Complete future reports append comparable points and retain the previous validated generation.

0 25 50 75 100 47.2 2026-08
  1. 47.2Initial published snapshot

Compare all countries and capacity layers → Read the complete method →

DOOMBENCH ASSOCIATIONS

People and companies

Associations reuse reviewed People country codes and Company headquarters data. They support navigation only and never change a country or job score.

People (0)

No published people profiles are currently associated with Guatemala.

Companies (0)

No published company profiles are currently associated with Guatemala.

SHARE THE FINDINGS

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DoomBench social sharing card for Guatemala.

  1. Guatemala has a DoomBench Job Doom score of 20.5 out of 100 across 46 representative jobs covering 90.9% of the country's modelled GDP.

  2. Guatemala has a DoomBench Rebellion Risk score of 25.1 out of 100, with civic and legal restriction pressure currently the strongest modelled structural-pressure factor.

  3. Guatemala has a DoomBench Government Preparedness score of 47.2 out of 100, with prevent avoidable ai harm identified as its weakest current capacity stage.

    https://www.doombench.com/countries/guatemala