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COUNTRY PROFILE · TJK

Tajikistan 🇹🇯

Limited disruption pressure across 41 representative jobs covering 90.5% of the country's modelled GDP. The Rebellion Risk profile adds a structural-pressure view of how disruption may interact with economic strain, governance, civic space, support systems, and history. Government Preparedness then measures observable capacity to prevent, absorb, and respond to AI-related shocks. These are evidence indexes, not forecasts.

JOB DOOM12.6out of 100GDP-weighted disruption profile, not an unemployment forecast
Job Doom
12.6
GDP coverage
90.5%
Confidence
72/100
Economic data
2024
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GDP-WEIGHTED REPRESENTATIVE WORK

Jobs shaping Tajikistan's score

GDP shares are transparent estimates derived from World Bank sector value added and a fixed sector-to-occupation allocation. They describe economic importance, not the percentage of workers in each job.

41 of 41 jobs

  1. Crop and nursery farmworkers

    Agriculture, forestry and fishing
    Estimated GDP share
    14.54%
    Job Doom
    4.4
    Confidence
    74/100
    Job evidence →

  2. Agricultural production managers

    Agriculture, forestry and fishing
    Estimated GDP share
    5.01%
    Job Doom
    9.4
    Confidence
    82/100
    Job evidence →

  3. Carpenters and joiners

    Construction and utilities
    Estimated GDP share
    4.11%
    Job Doom
    4.5
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →
  4. Estimated GDP share
    3.45%
    Job Doom
    9.4
    Confidence
    65/100
    Job evidence →

  5. Building electricians

    Construction and utilities
    Estimated GDP share
    3.43%
    Job Doom
    6.7
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →

  6. Infrastructure maintenance workers

    Construction and utilities
    Estimated GDP share
    3.43%
    Job Doom
    6.1
    Confidence
    71/100
    Job evidence →

  7. Retail salespersons

    Trade, transport and distribution
    Estimated GDP share
    3.43%
    Job Doom
    31.8
    Confidence
    68/100
    Job evidence →

  8. Fishing and aquaculture workers

    Agriculture, forestry and fishing
    Estimated GDP share
    3.01%
    Job Doom
    6.1
    Confidence
    80/100
    Job evidence →
  9. Estimated GDP share
    2.88%
    Job Doom
    6.4
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →
  10. Estimated GDP share
    2.88%
    Job Doom
    6.1
    Confidence
    71/100
    Job evidence →

  11. Heavy truck and lorry drivers

    Trade, transport and distribution
    Estimated GDP share
    2.54%
    Job Doom
    8.6
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →

  12. Agricultural technicians

    Agriculture, forestry and fishing
    Estimated GDP share
    2.51%
    Job Doom
    9.4
    Confidence
    67/100
    Job evidence →

  13. Civil engineers

    Construction and utilities
    Estimated GDP share
    2.06%
    Job Doom
    11.0
    Confidence
    74/100
    Job evidence →

  14. Construction managers

    Construction and utilities
    Estimated GDP share
    2.06%
    Job Doom
    18.6
    Confidence
    74/100
    Job evidence →

  15. Power production plant operators

    Construction and utilities
    Estimated GDP share
    2.06%
    Job Doom
    11.1
    Confidence
    69/100
    Job evidence →

  16. Cashiers and ticket clerks

    Trade, transport and distribution
    Estimated GDP share
    1.90%
    Job Doom
    18.6
    Confidence
    71/100
    Job evidence →
  17. Estimated GDP share
    1.87%
    Job Doom
    14.9
    Confidence
    77/100
    Job evidence →
  18. Estimated GDP share
    1.87%
    Job Doom
    14.0
    Confidence
    82/100
    Job evidence →

  19. Hotel and office cleaners

    Hospitality and personal services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.66%
    Job Doom
    4.2
    Confidence
    67/100
    Job evidence →

  20. Registered nurses

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.55%
    Job Doom
    12.2
    Confidence
    80/100
    Job evidence →

  21. Cooks

    Hospitality and personal services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.48%
    Job Doom
    7.1
    Confidence
    69/100
    Job evidence →

  22. Hotel receptionists

    Hospitality and personal services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.48%
    Job Doom
    27.8
    Confidence
    71/100
    Job evidence →

  23. Freight truck drivers

    Manufacturing
    Estimated GDP share
    1.44%
    Job Doom
    8.6
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →

  24. Primary school teachers

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.44%
    Job Doom
    15.0
    Confidence
    76/100
    Job evidence →

  25. Secondary school teachers

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.33%
    Job Doom
    27.0
    Confidence
    75/100
    Job evidence →

  26. Mining and quarrying operators

    Mining and energy extraction
    Estimated GDP share
    1.32%
    Job Doom
    3.8
    Confidence
    65/100
    Job evidence →

  27. Waiters

    Hospitality and personal services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.31%
    Job Doom
    9.8
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →

  28. Client information workers

    Trade, transport and distribution
    Estimated GDP share
    1.27%
    Job Doom
    54.5
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →

  29. Real estate agents

    Trade, transport and distribution
    Estimated GDP share
    1.27%
    Job Doom
    28.4
    Confidence
    71/100
    Job evidence →

  30. Logistics and transport clerks

    Trade, transport and distribution
    Estimated GDP share
    1.14%
    Job Doom
    26.3
    Confidence
    76/100
    Job evidence →

  31. Supply and distribution managers

    Trade, transport and distribution
    Estimated GDP share
    1.14%
    Job Doom
    18.9
    Confidence
    82/100
    Job evidence →

  32. Government administration officers

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.11%
    Job Doom
    24.2
    Confidence
    74/100
    Job evidence →

  33. Medical practitioners

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.11%
    Job Doom
    11.7
    Confidence
    69/100
    Job evidence →

  34. Nursing assistants

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.11%
    Job Doom
    7.6
    Confidence
    64/100
    Job evidence →

  35. Child care workers

    Hospitality and personal services
    Estimated GDP share
    1.05%
    Job Doom
    7.4
    Confidence
    75/100
    Job evidence →

  36. Travel consultants

    Hospitality and personal services
    Estimated GDP share
    0.96%
    Job Doom
    42.5
    Confidence
    67/100
    Job evidence →

  37. Medical records specialists

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    0.89%
    Job Doom
    56.1
    Confidence
    64/100
    Job evidence →

  38. Police officers

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    0.89%
    Job Doom
    11.9
    Confidence
    69/100
    Job evidence →

  39. Social and human service assistants

    Public, health and education services
    Estimated GDP share
    0.89%
    Job Doom
    11.5
    Confidence
    72/100
    Job evidence →

  40. Customer service representatives

    Business, finance and digital services
    Estimated GDP share
    0.86%
    Job Doom
    60.3
    Confidence
    70/100
    Job evidence →

  41. Petroleum and gas operations professionals

    Mining and energy extraction
    Estimated GDP share
    0.83%
    Job Doom
    10.2
    Confidence
    68/100
    Job evidence →
EVIDENCE OVER TIME

Country score progression

Historical country points reuse the same current GDP weights so changes represent new occupation evidence rather than changes in economic composition.

0 25 50 75 100 14.6 2025-05 12.6 2026-03 12.6 2026-06
  1. 14.6
  2. 12.6
  3. 12.6
ECONOMIC BASIS

Sector profile and provenance

Reported sector shares. The latest available value is used for each top-level sector. Manufacturing is shown inside industry and is not added to the 100% total a second time.

Agriculture
25.1%
Industry
35.3%
Manufacturing within GDP
14.4%
Services
39.6%
CURRENT REBELLION RISK SNAPSHOT

Structural pressure in Tajikistan

Emerging structural pressure at 34.2 out of 100. This is a comparative early-warning index, not a probability or prediction that an uprising will occur.

REBELLION RISK34.2out of 100Emerging structural pressure, confidence 76/100
Small protest pressure
22.8
Emerging structural pressure
Medium protest pressure
23.9
Emerging structural pressure
Large protest pressure
36.7
Emerging structural pressure
AI displacement pressure12.6
Economic and labour strain17.5
Governance and lawful-response fragility53.5
Social shock-absorption deficit56.2
Civic and legal restriction pressure90.0
Economic protest and mobilization history0.0

Current input snapshot

Unemployment
6.9% (2025)
Youth unemployment
14.6% (2025)
Inflation
3.1% (fallback)
Political stability
61.2/100
Government effectiveness
39.7/100
Rule of law
36.6/100
Voice and accountability
28.1/100
Civic space
Closed (10/100)
Social protection
32.4% (ILO income-group estimate)

Recorded protest history

Economic protests in Carnegie tracker
0
Economic protests since 2023
0
Largest recorded size band
Not recorded
UCDP violent political protest events
0
Latest UCDP year
Not recorded

No economically motivated protest is recorded for this country in the selective Carnegie tracker. This is not evidence that none occurred.

Confidence is reduced for modelled inputs. Social protection uses the ILO's 2023 lower middle income group estimate because a complete country-level public download was unavailable. Other fallback fields: inflation.

REPORTS OVER TIME

Rebellion Risk timeline

This first publication establishes the initial snapshot. Complete future reports append comparable points instead of silently replacing earlier assessments.

0 25 50 75 100 34.2 2026-08
  1. 34.2Initial published snapshot

Compare all countries and impact layers → Read the complete method →

CURRENT GOVERNMENT PREPAREDNESS SNAPSHOT

Public capacity in Tajikistan

Limited observed preparedness at 34.3 out of 100. This comparison measures documented capacity, not a guarantee, endorsement, or prediction of future government performance.

GOVERNMENT PREPAREDNESS34.3out of 100Limited observed preparedness, confidence 86/100
Prevent
32.2
Prevent avoidable AI harm
Absorb
28.9
Absorb economic and cyber shocks
Respond
44.1
Respond lawfully and effectively
Responsible AI governance safeguards17.9
Digital state capacity56.1
Cyber resilience25.4
Social shock protection32.4
Institutional execution39.7
Crisis-response capacity53.0

Current input snapshot

Responsible AI safeguards
17.9/100 (2026)
Digital state capacity
56.1/100 (2024)
Cyber resilience
25.4/100 (2024)
Social shock protection
32.4/100 (2023)
Institutional execution
39.7/100 (2024)
Crisis-response capacity
53.0/100 (2026)

Model interpretation

Weakest stage
Absorb economic and cyber shocks
Overall method
Weighted geometric mean
Observed fallbacks
0
Confidence
86/100

Prevention carries 40% of the final score. Absorption and response each carry 30%. The geometric mean limits compensation when one stage is materially weaker.

Confidence is reduced for modelled inputs. Social protection uses the ILO's 2023 lower middle income estimate. Other fallbacks: none.

REPORTS OVER TIME

Government Preparedness timeline

This first publication establishes the initial snapshot. Complete future reports append comparable points and retain the previous validated generation.

0 25 50 75 100 34.3 2026-08
  1. 34.3Initial published snapshot

Compare all countries and capacity layers → Read the complete method →

DOOMBENCH ASSOCIATIONS

People and companies

Associations reuse reviewed People country codes and Company headquarters data. They support navigation only and never change a country or job score.

People (0)

No published people profiles are currently associated with Tajikistan.

Companies (0)

No published company profiles are currently associated with Tajikistan.

SHARE THE FINDINGS

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DoomBench social sharing card for Tajikistan.

  1. Tajikistan has a DoomBench Job Doom score of 12.6 out of 100 across 41 representative jobs covering 90.5% of the country's modelled GDP.

  2. Tajikistan has a DoomBench Rebellion Risk score of 34.2 out of 100, with civic and legal restriction pressure currently the strongest modelled structural-pressure factor.

  3. Tajikistan has a DoomBench Government Preparedness score of 34.3 out of 100, with absorb economic and cyber shocks identified as its weakest current capacity stage.

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